Economy & Credit Chest

The break-even in the IRR profile of the AAAtranche is a multiple of the annualized historical average loss for BBB-rated corporates (10x in this case). The BBB-class hits the IRR of the portfolio at around 0.9 percent which is 4.5 times the historical average loss. Static synthetic mezzanines normally exhibit a lower rating stability than mezzanine notes of managed synthetic CDOs, depending on the skill of the manager.

Assumption: The 5-year cumulative default rate for BBB is around 1.60 percent, assuming a 40 percent recovery rate. This equals an annualized 0.2 percent expected loss rate. The size of the mezzanine tranches affects the expected loss (probability of loss unaffected). As the size of the mezzanine class decreases the expected loss tends to increase hyperbolically as seen (binomial expansion technique with a diversity score of 55 was used). The ratio of the expected tranche losses to the expected CDS portfolio losses would define the risk leverage. When the ratio is above 1 the mezzanine note has a greater expected percentage loss than the underlying portfolio. The percentage of the first loss class has a major impact on the leverage of the mezzanine class (assuming the same underlying exposure in size.

One way of appraising competing options is to look at the desired outcome and then see which option will achieve it. This simple approach is often complicated by the need to prioritise goals, reduce costs or minimise risk, and in selecting the best option usually involves trade-offs and compromise. Another approach is to establish criteria for the final decision – for example, it needs to work quickly, not be expensive, take a reasonable amount of time to organise and so forth – and then score each option against these components on a scale of 1–10. The highest-scoring option wins. With both approaches, you need to fully understand what each option requires, how it works and what it achieves.

A lack of sufficiently thorough analysis is common in decision-making. The natural tendency is for people to gravitate towards a particular option, often because of prejudice, fear (especially fear of change), a desire to avoid risk, laziness, or an over-reliance on instinct. We highlighted the importance of carefully assessing the situation, defining critical issues and specifying the decision. These are the first three stages of the rational decision-making process. Combining “hard” factors such as data, technology and information with “soft” factors of intuition, experience and creativity can test potential decisions. It is important to question assumptions and see things from another perspective (such as that of the customer or person most affected by the decision).